“People naively believe that if you take deep learning and scale it 100 times more layers, and add 1000 times more data, a neural net will be able to do anything a human being can do….deep learning is greedy, brittle, opaque, and shallow.”

The enthusiasm for machine learning, and deep learning in particular, brings back my memory of the heydays of quantitative investment management in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s, when many people believed in the power of econometrics to handle any investment decisions.  While quant investing did make some headways and has become an important tool, it is a far cry from that rosy prediction.  In my view, the main reason is because it is trying to use crude (and possibly wrong) statistical methods to model collective human psychology and behavior, of which we humans have little understanding to begin with.


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